2010 will prove to be the most catastrophic year the modern wine industry has seen.
Bottom line: If you drink wine at or above, say the $20 mark, you might want to exercise a little restraint for a few months. Wine's going to get cheaper. A lot cheaper.
The rest of the story: If you've been paying even casual attention to the writing on this site at all, you know that the price of a wine absolutely matters as a factor in its ranking. If you concur, then listen up.
Some time ago we asked the question 'WTF Is Going On' when we saw the leading indicators of a slide in the wine market. Well, the indicators are getting stronger - and they don't look good for wineries, distributors, or retailers.
Domestic economic conditions, the job market, consumer sentiment, currency valuation, and other factors all play a role in this tragedy, but in a nutshell it all boils down to this:
1) The economy hit the shitter.
2) People ( a LOT of people) lost their jobs, livelihoods, and/or savings.
3) Even those who didn't lose everything got a little spooked. Okay, more than a little spooked.
4) Everyone cut back on nonessential items - and downgraded on luxury items.
So, did those who spent $60 on a bottle of wine stop drinking? Hell no. They just started drinking cheaper. And you know what they found? That life ain't so different at the $30 price point. In fact, it's not so bad at $20/bottle. And, unlike earlier times, no one gives a shit what their neighbors think this time.
Frugality (if you can call it that at $30 a bottle) is in.
The effect this is having on the super-ultra-hype-premium wine market is nothing short of devastating. In fact, we'll stick our neck out and make a not-so-bold prediction: 2010 will prove to be the most catastrophic year the modern wine industry has seen. This time next year, the road to eking out a profit in this market will be littered with the carcasses of the dead and dying - and respectable - independent wineries.
If wine were stocks, you'd be well advised to hoard cash and hold off on any blue-chip purchases for at least a few months. Folks, we're on the downhill - and headed for a cliff.
Another prediction: 2010 will also create the best conditions modern wine consumers have ever seen. High end wine is about to go on a fire sale. Get ready.
In the meantime, enjoy the plentitude of incredible bargains the market's been offering up for a long time.
The rest of the story: If you've been paying even casual attention to the writing on this site at all, you know that the price of a wine absolutely matters as a factor in its ranking. If you concur, then listen up.
Some time ago we asked the question 'WTF Is Going On' when we saw the leading indicators of a slide in the wine market. Well, the indicators are getting stronger - and they don't look good for wineries, distributors, or retailers.
Domestic economic conditions, the job market, consumer sentiment, currency valuation, and other factors all play a role in this tragedy, but in a nutshell it all boils down to this:
1) The economy hit the shitter.
2) People ( a LOT of people) lost their jobs, livelihoods, and/or savings.
3) Even those who didn't lose everything got a little spooked. Okay, more than a little spooked.
4) Everyone cut back on nonessential items - and downgraded on luxury items.
So, did those who spent $60 on a bottle of wine stop drinking? Hell no. They just started drinking cheaper. And you know what they found? That life ain't so different at the $30 price point. In fact, it's not so bad at $20/bottle. And, unlike earlier times, no one gives a shit what their neighbors think this time.
Frugality (if you can call it that at $30 a bottle) is in.
The effect this is having on the super-ultra-hype-premium wine market is nothing short of devastating. In fact, we'll stick our neck out and make a not-so-bold prediction: 2010 will prove to be the most catastrophic year the modern wine industry has seen. This time next year, the road to eking out a profit in this market will be littered with the carcasses of the dead and dying - and respectable - independent wineries.
If wine were stocks, you'd be well advised to hoard cash and hold off on any blue-chip purchases for at least a few months. Folks, we're on the downhill - and headed for a cliff.
Another prediction: 2010 will also create the best conditions modern wine consumers have ever seen. High end wine is about to go on a fire sale. Get ready.
In the meantime, enjoy the plentitude of incredible bargains the market's been offering up for a long time.